Aufschwung steht kurz bevor

Die Pandemie hat die Ostschweizer Industrie auf verschiedene Weise getroffen. Insbesondere während des Lockdowns im Frühjahr, als die Exportnachfrage einbrach, kam es zu erheblichen Umsatzeinbrüchen. Einzelne Lieferketten wurden unterbrochen, in vielen Ländern kam es zum Produktionsstopp. Gleichzeitig brach durch die Zwangsschliessungen vieler Läden und Einrichtungen die Nachfrage ein.

Insbesondere die Exportnachfrage ist für den Ostschweizer Industriesektor zentral. Dank einer guten Nachfrage aus Asien und den USA konnte im zweiten Halbjahr eine gewisse Normalität wiederhergestellt werden. Der Auftragsbestand ist aber nach wie vor vergleichsweise tief.

Der Grossteil der Wertschöpfungsketten blieb intakt und die Firmen sind gerüstet für den Aufschwung. Zwar verfügt die Industrie immer noch über zu grosse technische Kapazitäten und auch der Personalbestand stufen viele Befragte als zu hoch ein. Allerdings ist der finanzielle Druck dank ersten Sparrunden, den Massnahmen des Bundes (Kurzarbeit und Überbrückungskredite) sowie der tiefen Zinsen gering.

Für die kommenden Monate rechnet eine leichte Mehrheit der Industriebetriebe mit einer gleichbleibenden oder besseren Situation. Dies deckt sich auch mit der Situation in der Gesamtschweiz. Der zweite Lockdown ist Europa-spezifisch und trifft in erster Linie die Binnenwirtschaft (Detailhandel und Gastronomie). Die Industrie bleibt von diesem mehrheitlich verschont. Mit einem weiter voranschreitenden Impffortschritt dürfte sich die Lage weiter entspannen.

Produktion

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Ertragslage

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Kapazitätsauslastungsgrad (in %)

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Auftragsbestand

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Zahl der Beschäftigten

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Technische Kapazitäten

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Auftragsbestand

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Geschäftslage

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Beschäftigtenzahl

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